The Blind Spot in Big Decisions: Why Second-Order Consequences Deserve a Front Row Seat
As published by Georgia Tech Supply Chain and Logistics Institute - In the world of strategic decision-making—whether in Supply Chain Management and Engineering or in policy—we tend to focus our energy on the immediate problem in front of us. But in my experience—especially during my time at Coca-Cola and across broader industry engagements—what often gets left out of the room are the second-order effects. These are the unintended consequences that don't show up in the PowerPoint deck, but show up months or years later on your P&L, in your customer feedback, or in your team’s stress levels.
Some of these outcomes are manageable. Others are problematic. Occasionally, they’re game-changing—but not in the way we hoped.
The Core Challenge: Complexity Crowds Out Curiosity
In my time in industry, I’ve seen high-stakes decisions unfold under tight timelines. The rigor is there: financial models, market analysis, legal due diligence. But the same pressure that brings focus often narrows the field of vision. Once the strategic goal is clear, the push becomes “get the recommendation ready” or “get the deal done.” Often, the team disbands before the ripple effects have even begun to appear.
In fact, studies of managerial behavior find that decision-makers often prioritize short-term outcomes over long-term implications, making it easy to overlook those downstream impacts.